In the future, she added, social-distancing recommendations might be less aggressive than they are now but they're unlikely to go away for at least a year. All Rights Reserved. When did None of it made much difference against the virus, it turned out. And if youre unvaccinated, you have some reasons to be alarmed. The story behind the coronavirus 'flatten the curve' chart - Fast Let's hope our government has learned that lesson as we move into year two. What did come, however, was a slew of arbitrary and oftenridiculous mandatesand decrees from politicians who think that government force can stop a pandemic. Sign up for How To Read This Chart, a weekly data newsletter from Philip Bump. Vaccines do something similar, allowing potentially low-risk people to get a shot to reduce the likelihood that theyll get infected and spread it to others. One of the most heavily vaccinated places on the planet, withthestrictest vaccine mandates in the country, New York City, accounted for nearly 10% of all cases in the U.S. NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant says it will take seven to 14 days to know if the "flatten the curve" measures are working. However, people who had seen the widespread chart relied less on their trust in scientists when determining how controllable the pandemic was. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. "This is where technology really begins to take us forward in leaps and bounds.". In the 20 states that have seen the most cases, theres a consistent pattern: Days in which a higher percentage of ICU beds held patients being treated for covid-19 were days in which ICUs were closer to capacity. That the flatten the curve graphic reached so many people shows the power of simple, strong, visual messages, says Li. The data is being closely watched A version of the chart and the phrase flatten the curve first appeared in a 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about ways to control the spread of a pandemic. A Division of NBCUniversal. For questions, feedback, and suggestions you can email us: EraofLightblog@Gmail.com. The answer for many is no for a variety of reasons. This could last eighteen months, or two years, or more. President Trump declared a National Emergency in response to the Coronavirus on Friday, freeing up more than $42 billion in resources for states and localities. The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the perspective or beliefs of the Era of Light staff. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Polling shows that those who arent vaccinated and Republicans (groups with a lot of overlap) see vaccination more as a personal choice than a social responsibility. We are supposed to applaud the notion that if we behave the government will grant us rights we already have five months from now? And that is a bad place to be.. President Trump continues to cut through every piece of unnecessary Washington red tape that may hinder response efforts, and he is continuing to make every Federal resource available to those who need it. A version of the chart and the phrase flatten the curve first appeared in a 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about ways to control the The initiative should not have been tied to a timeline, she said, but instead to a specific task like reducing daily new infections to a certain level. Only 14.7% of kids 5 to 11 are vaccinated. People in car crashes, people with cancer, pregnant women who have complications during delivery all those people risk getting a lesser caliber of care when a hospital is trying to cope with the chaos of an outbreak. Seattle is already in the thick of it. That means app. What happened after that? I thought the concentration camps were working. And were feeling silly, he said, noting people still feel self-conscious bumping elbows instead of shaking hands. "Seriously people STOP BUYING MASKS!" The degree to which we have allowed the government to unilaterally bring our economy and lives to a halt without due process and input from the general public is unacceptable. This is the type of rhetoric that always lead to a two-tiered society in which the dehumanized sect suffers immensely under the authoritarians. So in July and August of 2020, they surveyed a representative sample of 500 American adults and asked them if they had ever seen the chart. But the idea that everyone will sit at home until a vaccine is found has at the moment fallen out of favor except in the most dogmatically leftist areas. Neither of those things has happened, yet governments have already begun to significantly loosen lockdowns. Countries were closing borders, the stock market was cratering and Trump in what proved to be prescient remarks acknowledged the outbreak could extend beyond the summer. If results are virtually identical regardless of the level of the shutdown, wouldn't the most pragmatic solution be to mirror Florida and allow individuals to make their own decisions about what is best for the health and safety of their families? There was one idea, though, that we might have abandoned too quickly. All the tyranny in Australia has worked to flatten the curve! Chan School of Public Health have looked at what U.S. hospitals might endure if Wuhan-scale spread occurred in this country. "Comfort and physical safety are boons to humanity, but they bring some costs, too. That was 663 days ago. For more on this, and instructions, click here. March 6, 2021 Geoffrey Pike 3 Comments. 700 Days Into 14 Days To Flatten The Curve And The Only The notion that the curve of this outbreak could be flattened began to gain credence after China took the extraordinary step of locking down tens of millions of people days in advance of the Lunar New Year, to prevent the virus from spreading around the country from Wuhan, the city where the outbreak appears to have started. That was 663 days ago. If intense lockdown protocols were an effective way to mitigate against infection and death rates, the data would show states such as California and New York with much better outcomes than Texas and Florida. Are you a health care worker affected by the coronavirus outbreak? A year later, Trumps 15 days to slow the spread - CNBC Although we didnt see a difference in peoples ideas or behavioral intentions based on their awareness of the chart, the message is still beneficial because theres some evidence that it allowed people to form a more informed decision without relying on trust.. To any in doubt about compliance : everyone must take this pandemic event seriously, and each and everyone needs to take responsibility of all the action needed to curb spread. Enter your email to receive notifications of new posts. "With several of weeks of focused action we can turn the tide and turn it quickly.". Well find out. That argument has been counterproductive, Mike Ryan, the head of the WHOs health emergencies program, said Monday. In February of 2020, The Economist printed a modified version of the chart showing the delay in peak infections and the lowering of the peak. ". That is nothing if not intuitive, of course; someone sick with covid is necessarily going to increase the percentage of beds in use. But by taking certain steps canceling large public gatherings, for instance, and encouraging some people to restrict their contact with others governments have a shot at stamping out new chains of transmission, while also trying to mitigate the damage of the spread that isnt under control. No higher priority than the health of the American people, Listen to and follow the directions of your. At the time, as city and state officials rushed to implement restrictions to curb the outbreak. 60%). But that is not all. On March 16, 2020, one year ago today, President Donald Trump announced a fifteen-day effort to "slow the spread" of COVID-19. After all, as unemployment numbers skyrocketed andstate and local government budgets cratered, lockdown until vaccine didnt seem like such a viable strategy anymore. Subscribe nowto get breaking news from President Trump before anyone else. 15 days to flatten the curve So what I think were seeing is decision-makers struggling to pull the trigger on these really big, impactful decisions without having a clear sense of the current status.. But that safety never came and it never will. Why flattening the curve may be the worlds best bet to slow the coronavirus. Follow her on Mastodon and Post News. The epidemic curve, a statistical chart used to visualize when and at what speed new cases are reported, could be flattened, rather than being allowed to rise exponentially. Over the last two years, one of the largest power grabs in the history of the world has taken place as fearful citizens willingly surrendered their rights to the state for the promise of safety. I know I speak on behalf of the President and our entire team when I say how grateful we are for governors all across the country and the seamless partnership that we have forged with them and with state health officials, Vice President Mike Pence said yesterday. The one thing we hope to have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who is infected, isolate them, and then do contact tracing.. We call you to take part in the Collective Meditation. Statement From Roger Stone In Response To The January 6th Committee. Legitimate disagreement within the scientific community is common, but perhaps never before has the debate played out so publicly or with such high stakes. But as for the non-vaccinated, I really want to piss them off. She added that little was known at the time about the virus, and it was difficult to parse good science from bad. He projects that 480, 000 people will die in the coming months. Gottlieb: Europe's rise in Covid cases isn't predictive of U.S. trajectory, announced his administration's "15 days to slow the spread" campaign, acknowledged the outbreak could extend beyond the summer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, took a couple of private sector positions. The shade of the colors indicates the size of each states growth or decline in new cases; the darker the shade, the bigger the change. A March 11 article forStatnews,summed it up: I think the whole notion of flattening the curve is to slow things down so that this doesnt hit us like a brick wall, said Michael Mina, associate medical director of clinical microbiology at Bostons Brigham and Womens Hospital. Got a confidential news tip? pic.twitter.com/wHYFL5r1wj, Matt Agorist (@MattAgorist) December 26, 2021. That means that we know we should be doing it. ", "I cannot see that all of a sudden, next week or two weeks from now, it's going to be over," he said in an interview with the Today show. This article was published more than1 year ago. Most in the deaths have been in the Seattle area. Americans should continue practicing strict personal hygiene, including washing hands regularly for at least 20 seconds at a time and wiping down surfaces in the home often. I think scientists should definitely do more of this kind of visual messaging, says Li. TheFinancial Timesreported on April 29: The World Health Organization has defended Swedens approach to tackling Covid-19, saying it has implemented strong measures to tackle the virus. Hard-left activist Matthew Yglesias, for example,complainedthis week that flattening the curve isnt good enough.. You are overlooking the fact pointed out by Michael Osterholm that when these infected and distanced people eventually get out and into the workplace, public spaces, public transportation, etc., they will contribute to another spate of contagion and resulting deaths. "As of today, we are on a course to double the number of confirmed cases in the US every two to three days.". While many folks, including those in government, have begun to open their eyes to the data and realize that locking people in their homes, shutting down society, and forcibly medicating people against their will does not stop Covid, others are still pressing on. OMG, theres thick black smoke rolling out of the eaves of the house, but theres no visible fire! Everyone who can telecommute should be required to do so. Despite experts, world wide, weighing in on the harms of school closures and masking children, bureaucrats across the country are beating that dead horse. With interventions like social distancing and mask wearing, the CDC said, the peak of infections could be delayed and lowered, and the total number of infections could be reduced. Trump's 15-day plan to slow the coronavirus' spread is too short, experts say. But an individuals awareness of the flatten-the-curve graphic did not predict their willingness to engage in social distancing or their belief in societys ability to control the course of the pandemic. And fewer people in the hospital meant not only fewer people dying from covid-19 but less risk that hospitals would be unable to care for other, non-covid patients. Policy decisions can, and should, be based on more than safety alone. Coronavirus: What is 'flattening the curve,' and will it work? Contact Us, Watch: Angry Parents Slam School Board for Sexually Grooming Students with Family Friendly Drag Shows, Reporter Trolls School Board By Dressing Like Trans Teacher With Colossal Prosthetic Breasts, Breaking! I think people are not yet fully understanding the scale of this outbreak and how dangerous it is to downplay, he said. One Year After Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve Barbot, now a professor at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, said in a phone interview that the federal government's testing woes put the city "behind the eight ball before the game even got started. State and local officials quickly We experienced two mini-peaks - one in the Spring and one in the Summer - rather than one massive peak in the Spring. When asked who they trusted, people ranked medical professionals ahead of other scientists and the CDC. The floundering bureaucracy is seemingly unconcerned with actual science and continues to implement policies which have had no effect on slowing the virus: masks, jabs, and lockdowns. WebWhen did "flatten the curve" start meaning get infection spread to zero? In New York City, some hospitals were overwhelmed, but the initial wave soon passed. #coronavirus #disruption #innovation. I Will Not Be Silenced! Indeed, two weeks earlier, the Hawaii Department of Education had already abandoned its declaration about the need for no new cases, with the department director backpedaling furiously andstating: We would expect to be living with COVID-19 for a long time, and to have to wait for the last case to have occurred and another 28 days probably is not going to happen, so I believe that was really a placeholder.. Amplified by The Economist and on Twitter during the spring of 2020, the message took off. Reporting and analysis from the Hill and the White House, Its time to talk about flattening the curve again. Again, weve seen that increases in coronavirus infections have, in fact, strained intensive care units since the pandemic began. While the President leads a nationwide response, bringing together government resources and private-sector ingenuity, every American can help slow the virus spread and keep our most high-risk populations safe: Todays guidelines build on the CDCs general recommendations to help prevent spread of the virus. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider For the next two weeks or so, governments mostly sold the idea of forced social distancing as a measure to flatten the curve and the phrase began appearing everywhere in social media, media publications and government announcements. The curve of the Philippines as of Sept. 9, 2020 looks like this: After the lockdown was initiated, the curve remained relatively flat until the end of May, after which it started to increase exponentially. Although it has not happened by design, the US is moving toward a Sweden model. Theres no better way to protect your family and your community than by arming yourself with accurate, up-to-date information. Clearly we can no longer rely on them to make decisions which benefit freedom and liberty. Should we not be shaking hands? One public-health expert said social distancing should be enforced until a vaccine is developed in 12 to 18 months. By late April, numerous states governors and municipal officials were discussing ways to scale back their lockdowns.

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