Let's confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10th of the world's population 20 years go (1/10th of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. Do you know the odds of being alive? He attended the Ted Talk and wrote about it afterward, doing his own calculations on how likely your existence is. As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. I met a couple of interesting people at a casual meet-up and the topic of the day was a good life. The atheist and agnostics give the existence of God about the same odds. Not only has He always known us; he has known everything each of us would do, for every one of our days has been written in His book before one of them ever came to be. They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. The Cycle of Hatred and Revenge Ends With Me A Homily for the 7th Sunday of the Year. In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. Its not cheesy to be grateful to be alive, if you look at the facts, it should be normal. He concluded that the chances of a turtle sticking its head out in the middle of the life preserver was about one in 700 trillion. Think of yourself as dead. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. The even better news is that the first one on Tue June 16, which is the Special Session on Joy, is free Continue reading "Brain Yoga: New Sessions" First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Click the image to enlarge it and check their numbers: Of course, there are poets who argue exactly the opposite: that each of us is fated to exist, that there is a plan, and that all of us are expected. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. A fertile woman has about 100,000 viable eggs while a man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001.. dr ali binazir odds of being born - manoharinternational.com Which one's bigger? A little while ago I had the privilege of attending TEDx San Francisco, organized by the incomparable Christine Mason McCaull. So what's the probability of your being born? In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (410 14). First, lets talk about the probability of your parents meeting. Dr. Ali Binazir | TheCarolinaCowboy Or are we some mysterious combination of impossible and inevitable? According to WolframAlpha, the total area of oceans in the world is 341 million km (131.6 million square miles). Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. According to author Mel Robbins, scientists have estimated that our odds of being born are about 1 in 400 trillion. On top of that, to be born in a first-world country, the odds are even smaller. I have over 2,000 posts here & my recovery related blogs are all under the RecovHer category at the top. Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis. Are You a Miracle? On the Probability of Your Being Born You may quibble with some of the Binazirs assumptions above. I gotta say, the two numbers are pretty darn close, for such a far-fetched notion from two completely different sources: old-time Buddhist scholars and present-day scientists., *Illustration of human profile and numbers via Shutterstock, You're one in 400 trillion, or pretty much a miracle. The probability of this happening is 635,013,559,600 to one against. Suitcases checked and standing side by side. The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. Regardless of your skin color, country of origin, body size, religion, gender, or view point, WE ALREADY MADE IT HERE. In other words, when seen in the aggregate, that probability is simply stating that it is very hard to predict _who_ will exist and not that someone will. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. You are, He Will Come Like a Thief to Take Back What Is His, Flee to the Truth When Tempted A Homily for the First Sunday of Lent, Ash Wednesday Breaks All the Rules of Modern Churchthink. The probability that you came about is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water -- into the middle of that life preserver. That's a pretty straightforward calculation. Astronomers estimate that there are at least 100 billion galaxies in the observable Universe. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? It turns out that when taking into account the astonishing number of possibilities of parents meeting, grandparents meeting before them, and so on going back generations, and then adding the vast number of sperm and ova in possible combinations over decades of the marital act in all those generations, the odds of me existing just as I do are about 1 in 10. Lets say a life preservers hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside, which we will conveniently round to 0.5 square meters. Go crazy with those celebrations, new parents to be. Heres a thought experiment to help illustrate the unbelievably huge size of these numbers. They agree to within a factor of two! And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. xx, Lets be social! Mathematician Professor John Littlewood of Cambridge University defined a miracle as an event happening with a frequency of one in a million. The analogy given by Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of YOU being born is here: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Thats a ridiculously huge number. By that definition, Ive just proven that you are a miracle. Love, H, Writer, Mama, Spiritual Warrior @RecovHer, Sharing is Caring! Be True to YOU (there is no one else like you, if there was they would have been born and not you), Odds of Being Born Infographic by Designer Sofya Yampolsky. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Scientists have calculated the odds of a human being born as at least 1 in 400 trillion. (Just dont blow up your car trying to have the exhaust be blue smoke like I saw on that viral video, or set any forests on fire, lets keep it safe, kids.). Now take whats left and live it properly. Marcus Aurelius. You are wonderfully and fearfully made, and God has done a marvelous thing. Something was dropped and then picked up. But lets make it longer. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age, going back about 150,000 generations to the origin of man. The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the waterin the middle of that life preserver. So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. You can consider using our babies name resource to choose baby at 12 weeks old that suits your needs! Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? So whats the probability of your existing? The number of atoms in the known universe is estimated at 1080. The only know outcome is that you were born to your particular parents. Perhaps three years ago or just last Tuesday a certain leaf fluttered from one shoulder to another? 1/(100,000)(4 trillion)= 1/(105)(41012)= 1 in 4 x 1017, or one in 400 quadrillion. We're about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. The chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is about 1 in 10. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001." What it Took For You to Exist The odds of being murdered are relatively low when compared to other possible causes of death. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Are you a miracle? On the probability of being born | Dr. Ali Binazir He breaks the chances you were born down like this: The probability of your parents meeting is one in 20,000. Lets say its a fly that moves at about 4 mph. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. If there is only one outcome then the probability is 1/1=1. Well surely reply you within 48 hours. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. Thats a pretty big number, I thought to myself. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. Then the probability of Mr. It is approximately 1 in 102,685,000 according to Dr. Ali Binazir, in a publication distributed by Huffington Post. But even if you dont believe in that, the science is enough. Let's confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10th of the world's population 20 years go (1/10th of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. So beginning with your folks, your odds of you being born come out to 1 in 400,000,000,000,000,000 or 1 in 4 quadrillion. As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. I was toying with this other idea, about an owl who falls in love with a cat and brings it mice every day. An unimaginably long time. So he gave us an analogy that helps: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting togetherabout the population of San Diegoeach to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. The probability that you came about is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water -- into the middle of that life preserver. Xahej (ZAH-edge) "Xi" Bajipura she/her/Ms. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are., Buddhists have talked of the preciousness of this incarnation. On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born? Those who are brave (foolish?) But, despite your being an extremely wonderful person, such a statement is wildly inaccurate. Fortunately, just such a person is poised at the keyboard right now, so lets get started. The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible. 3.97 avg rating 549 ratings published 2010 5 editions. The scientists and Buddhists seem to agree. This alone should boost any lingering low self-esteem quite a bit. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. Let's not get carried away here; we'll just deal with the human lineage. Essentially, what Borel said was that any event with a honking big (a technical term used by mathematicians) level of improbability would never happen. And whats even more profound is that 10^2,685,00 is not even remotely comparable with eternity. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000. One of my brothers made his own calculation regarding one of Binazirs assumptions and came up with a figure that would make the probability of existence even smaller: My numbers are more simplistic, but assuming 100,000 eggs/woman & 12 trillion sperm/man creates 1.2 x 10^18 combinations for every man/woman pairing (i.e., significantly more combinations than the 400 trillion or 4 x 10^14 mentioned in the article). Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. Then the probability of Mr. 530 Lovett Blvd, Houston, TX 77006 +1 (713) 942-9600; pricing strategy of samsung mobile phones. The right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents; otherwise theyd be different people and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Which one's bigger? Thats a pretty straightforward calculation. We were all meant to be here and that we must find our purpose that brought us into creation! Dr. Ali Binazir illustrates the extremely unlikely chain of events that would have to occur in order for you to be born with this . To complete the analysis: (102,640,000) (1045,000) (40,000,000) = 4 x 102,685,007 102,685,000. Moreover, the second shot would not necessary run into the red. As a comparison, the number of atoms in the body of an average male (80kg, 175 lb) is 1027. It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. By that definition, I've just proven that you are a miracle. Borel's Law of Probability - Owlcation But on all probability it would. it is impossible)., The astronomer Sir Fred Hoyle illustrated this with his Junkyard Tornado Theory: The chance that higher life forms might have emerged in this way is comparable to the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junkyard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein.. Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing. msk zilina slovan bratislava; battle of the brothers winner Because there you are futzing about on the internet reading incredibly interesting articles like this one. Well then, that would be one in 2150,000 , which is about 1 in 1045,000 a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. That's a pretty straightforward calculation. The odds of you existing have been calculated by Dr. Ali Binazir. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (41014). Which ones bigger? And lets say the fly decides to bring the ENTIRE MOON back to the Earth, one grain of sand at a time. The perfect deal in bridge is that each player receives all the cards in one suit. dr ali binazir odds of being born. Let's not get carried away here; we'll just deal with the human lineage. Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents. He says its similar to the probability of a turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere random in the oceans on Earth. I'm Heidi, I'm a writer, a mama and a sober recovery teacher/mentor. Were all winners in life without doing anything! I would certainly add in (sadly) that there is the possibility of abortion or miscarriage, but even a simple analysis yields an astonishingly small probability. So the combined probability is already around 1 in 40 million long but not insurmountable odds. One night, perhaps, the same dream, grown hazy by morning. Every beginning Is only a sequel, after all, and the book of events is always open halfway through. dr ali binazir odds of being born. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazir's article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. It has over 40,000 names organized into different categories, including Unisex, Boys Names, and Girls Names. Id gladly take those odds over trying to become a millionaire in any other country. Those who say Charles Darwins concept of evolution is hogwash gleefully seize on Borels Law to support their arguments. If we really took it in we would fall on our knees with rapture and tears of gratitude. Are You a Miracle? So, it seems fair to say that there are an infinite number of possibilities of any event happening not matter how remote the chance. By that definition, Ive just shown that you are a miracle, he wrote. Borels Law has since been enlisted by creationists and evolutionists alike to bolster their arguments. This is true no matter how far back in your family's history you may wish to go. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: 1 in 1045,000. Or stalk me (with love.). Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. Lets confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10 of the worlds population twenty years go (one tenth of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their grandparents, and so on till the beginning of time. It is like finding out how many angels can stand on a pin-head! dr ali binazir odds of being born - c-vineretirement.com alex mendez political party; land for sale bundaberg repossessed houses; how does macbeth and banquo's relationship change; skyking richard russell Check out my course, The RecovHer Freedom Breakthrough at the top of the page. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. And I note that it is an unladen fly that moves at about 4 mph. Author and blogger Dr. Ali Binazir did the calculations last spring and decided that the chances of anyone existing are one in 102,685,000. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is. Step 4. Why? This is similar to the probability of any one star turning super-nova. So lets say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million: Probability of boy meeting girl: 1 in 20,000. Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. So now we must account for those 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000 power: That's a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes the size of my book. Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis; you are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. The chances of that turning into another meeting is about 1 in 10. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. I would caution anyone from drawing a religiously-minded conclusion from these probabilities and heres why: While the probability of any one of us existing is very low, the probability that 350 million humans existing in the United States is very high. Lets say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause dont count. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 -- one in two. The scientists and Buddhists seem to agree. It was always likely that a living cell would jump out of that primordial soup because the conditions for that to happen must have existed somewhere; and, probably, in several somewheres. Step 4. The answer, if my math is right, (assuming a mass of the moon of 7.34 x 10^22 kg), is about 7.34 x 10^34 years. HubPages is a registered trademark of The Arena Platform, Inc. Other product and company names shown may be trademarks of their respective owners. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazirs article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. Scripture says. But, doesnt that seem a bit low? Onward to freedom! If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. You can start the series by clicking HERE. He was a funny guy. Ty Webb, Caddyshack, which is wanting more power, but giving up any power we already have. dr ali binazir odds of being born jeffrey dahmer museum milwaukee This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. Take a second and think about that, and put a smile on your face, you fucking miracle you. This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their parents, and so on back to the beginning of human time. There is no reason not to be bold, to throw yourself at life with vigor every single day. June 5. The conclusion: The odds that you exist at all are basically zero., He illustrates it this way: It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. There are only slightly more than 500 billionaires in America, making your odds of becoming one roughly one in 578,508. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. The likelihood that improbable events occur is controlled by the scale of the Universe. That probability is low but the presence of super-novae throughout the cosmos is not. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? Dr. Ali Binazir - Author - San Francisco, CA | YourTango Experts If even once the wrong sperm met the wrong egg, you would not be sitting here noodling online reading fascinating articles like this one. Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. 2023 The Arena Media Brands, LLC and respective content providers on this website. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. Are they gross exaggerations? They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Dr. Binazir is an author and personal change specialist who studied at Harvard, received a medical degree from the University of California, and studied philosophy at Cambridge University. Our own galaxy, the Milky Way, has as many as 400 billion stars in it and at least 100 billion planets. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. Me neither. If you need to flag this entry as abusive. I was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. on May 07, 2020: Rupert, in spite of too many odds in a probability, bottom line is that it is just 2 numbers of the roulette, black and red. Step 1. Because the fact that your baby to be is a miracle is not just a religious ideaits science. You get the volume of planet Earth. I recently got to wondering: What are the chances that my son was born? Based on the data from the CDC . And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. The odds against 26 blacks in a row are about 66 million to one against; however, previous results have absolutely no effect on subsequent ones. To say that someone or something is contingent is to say that the existence of same is not inevitable but rather can only come about based on a number of previous things being true in a chain of being or causality. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, The answer is five hundred bazillion squintillion, we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime.

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